Monday, January 01, 2007

Optimism?

I've taken the past week to reflect on "What's next?" I spent more time reading, Keeping It Real by Justina Robson, than assessing and planning. I assembled part of a West Coast trip for the weekend. I'll be doing a full day guided hike on the Franz Josef glacier on Saturday.

Now, I am reading answers to the The World Question Center's question for 2007, "What are you optimistic about? Why?" First, scientists are such pills for their stances on religion. They're probably right about how religion has dragged us into the current world geopolitical fiasco, but they are so tedious and dogmatic. Second, George F Smoot missed the point of the question. Here's a careful, out-of-context quote from his answer:

A careful assessment and years of experience that show that the long-term future is most bleak: Entropy will continue to increase, and a heat death (actually a misnomer as it means the degredation of usable energy in a dull cooling worthless background of chaos) is the very likely fate of the world. This is the fate that awaits us, if we manage to work our way past the energy crisis that looms as the Sun runs out of fuel and in its death throws expands as red giant star likely to engulf us after boiling away the seas before it collapses back to a slowly cooling cinder eventually to leave the solar system in cold darkness.

This energy crisis will eventually spread to the whole Milky Way Galaxy which will use up its available energy resources in a time scale of roughly ten times the present 14 billion year lifetime of our observed Universe. In that same time the accelerating expansion of the Universe continually reduces what we can observe and potentially access until in the distant future only the cinders of stars in our own galaxy are left. Argument goes on whether a sufficiently advanced intelligent society could manage to live (continue to have experiences and process new information and create new things) indefinitely in such an environment taking on the most carefully constructed and extreme measures that are physically possible. The chances of success look relatively low for even the most optimally managed and intelligent society.


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